Sleeper Vs. Breakout:
The key difference between sleepers and breakouts is that a sleeper is someone that is more of later round/free agency type of pick up that you believe has upside and could make an impact. A breakout is most likely someone who has not done it yet, but has the upside to help you win your league. In this Blog I am going to cover 3 sleepers and 3 breakouts I love for this season.
Breakouts:
- Javonte Williams: Javonte is only one year into his NFL career, but has debatably the most upside in the entire league. Last season he and Melvin Gordon were essentially a 50-50 split. This year I expect that to be closer to 70-30 Javonte. There are a couple reasons for this: #1 Melvin Gordon was a free agent this offseason, and the Broncos did not just bring him back right away, they let him look around. They were okay if he left, especially the new coaching staff. #2 The new coaching staff wants Javonte to be the guy, recently they interviewed Melvin and he told them just that, if they already know the coaching staff wants Javonte to be “The Guy” I got some news for you, he is going to be “The Guy” in fantasy as well. #3 New offensive scheme and QB. The Broncos are going from a conservative defensive minded coach, to the old offensive coordinator of one of the most electric offensive offenses in the league in Green Bay. With a new QB, and new offensive scheme, the Broncos are going to have much more opportunities for Williams and the Broncos.
- Gabriel Davis: Gabe Davis flashed signs of greatness last season and showed why he can be a fantasy monster moving forward. Just against KC during the last game of the year Davis had 210 yards receiving, and 4 touchdowns. This is now a Bills offense that has lost both Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders. That means there is 184 targets and 124 Receptions vacated. On top of the open targets/receptions, Gabe Davis is a big body that Allen looks for in the End Zone. This is a guy that will have plenty of opportunity in a top 3 offense in the league. I would target Davis in the early 6th round.
- Dalton Schultz: A common theme in these players is that they have opportunity, a solid offense, and a good quarterback. Dalton Schultz has all of them, Dallas was the number one offense in the league last season and they lost Amari cooper and Cedrick Wilson, two of Dak’s favorite targets. Both Schultz and CeeDee Lamb will be the main beneficiaries as the Cowboys did not address these losses at the WR position (I love Lamb this year as well). Why I think Schultz has a breakout campaign and ends as a top 3 tight end is simple: he already has chemistry with Dak (78 catches, 808 yards, and 8 Touchdowns last year) and I think that only goes up and Schultz has a monster year. I would draft Schultz at the end of the fifth round.
Honorable Mention: Rashod Bateman, Trey Lance, Dameon Pierce
Sleepers:
- Brian Robinson Jr.: If it isn’t clear yet, the Commanders don’t trust Antonio Gibson. Gibson since he came into the league has put the ball on the ground. Part of the reason? He’s not a natural RB! He was a WR in college who carried the ball less than 40 times. Although he is an electric player, he can’t be trusted. Robinson was a 3rd round draft pick (fairly early for a RB), and had a great final season at Bama as the Feature Back with 1600 Total yards, and 16 Touchdowns. I love Robinson’s potential this season as he is going after the 12th round in most drafts.
- Cole Kmet/Justin Fields: Justin Fields has to throw to someone right? Now, I am the type of person who has failed time and time again at picking the late tight end sleeper, which is why I am taking a Premium TE in Rounds 3-6. However, this situation is simple. New coaching staff, lack of options, and a not so great offensive line. The coaching staff can’t possibly call plays worse than Matt Nagy, plain and simple, on top of that with the O-Line not being great, Fields will be dumping the ball off to the TE and RB positions. Lastly, the Bears defense wont be that good, that means the Bears will be playing catchup and airing it out, part of the reason why I love both Fields and Kmet this year. My other main reason for loving Fields is mainly what i mentioned for Kmet, but also that he is just an electric Playmaker. When Lamar Jackson was brought into the starting role mid-season the Ravens had lost 3 in a row with Joe Flacco and were averaging a little over 300 yards a game. When Jackson took over they went 6-1 and were averaging closer to 400 yards a game, Jackson was a spark plug. I expect Fields to be that spark plug this year.
- Romeo Doubs: This sleeper is more about Aaron Rodgers then the player himself. Rodgers lost Davante Adams in the offseason, one of, if not the best Receiver in the NFL. I still think Rodgers will be great, and I think Doubs will be a big part. He’s big, and fast, and he can make adjustments. Rodgers has been critical of Doubs and other rookie pass catchers this summer, and Doubs has taken that criticism and just gotten better. He has shown that he can make athletic/contested catches, along with great route running as well. The door is open as the top veteran options on the Packers are Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, and Randall Cobb. With Watkins and Cobb well past their prime, and Lazard really being more of WR2 I love the opportunity for Doubs to come in and make an impact.
Honorable Mention: Isaiah Mckenzie, Chris Olave, and Kirk Cousins
Image By: USA Today Sports
